Et si votre voisin gagnait à la lotterie?

Certains économistes(et beaucoup de non-économistes) estiment que la consommation et le bonheur sont étroitement liés à notre position relative dans la société. L'économiste Robert H. Frank pense qu'il y a même de la consommation compétitive, le but étant d'obtenir des "positional goods" (pour plus de détail).

Des chercheurs ont eu l'idée de vérifier cet hypothèse avec les gagnants de la "Dutch Postcode Lottery". Ainsi, ils pourraient mesurer l'effet d'un gain inattendu de revenu sur la consommation personnelle des gagnants et celle de leurs voisins.

Voici l'abstract:

In the Dutch Postcode Lottery a postal code (19 households on average) is randomly selected weekly, and prizes –consisting of cash and a new BMW-- are awarded to lottery participants living in that postal code. On average, this generates a temporary, unexpected income shock equal to about eight months of income for about one third of the households in a typical winning code, while leaving the incomes of nonwinning, neighboring households unaffected. We study the responses of consumption and reported happiness of both winners and nonwinners to these shocks. Consistent with simple models of in-kind transfers, the overwhelming majority of households who won a BMW convert it into cash. With the exception of food away from home, the only ‘own’ effects of cash winnings we detect are on durables expenditures and car consumption; these results support a version of the permanent income hypothesis in which durable spending is used to smooth consumption. We detect social effects of neighbors’ winnings on two types of consumption: cars and exterior home renovations. Six months after the fact, winning the lottery does not make households happier, nor do neighbors’ winnings reduce happiness.

Pour plus d'information sur l'étude, vous pouvez la télécharger ici.